Latest Updates

The September 2010 statistics are out.  The number of active listings has remained essentially unchanged from a year ago as has the median listing price.  The absorption rate has climbed from 19 months a year ago to 21 months now which is not good news but is really only a slight increase.  The sold price to list price ratio has actually increased from about 92 % a year ago to about 93% now.  The median sales price, year to date, has declined from about $181,000 in September 2009 to about $177,000 last month.  Not really to bad considering.  The number of listings sold year to date in 2009 was 509 while year to date in September 2010 it was 477 which is about a 6.5% decline in numbers. The number of active listings year over year has remained unchanged at about 2,200 which is fairly good news. Overall our market is not too bad considering the local and national economic climate. Some areas are seeing more problems than others.     

This spring has been cold and at times windy. The river is up and the wind has come late this year. It appears that the market for the larger more expensive houses is improving as orders for appraisals on sales of these houses has increased. My next entry will include info on the most recent year over year sales data and hopefully it will bear this out.

The year over year statistics for March are in. Based on the data it appears that things are still soft but they show signs of improving. In March of 2009 there were 675 total residential listings while this March there were 725 which is a 7% increase. Last year there were 70 residential properties under contract in March while this year there were only 33 which is a huge decline. The sold volume actually increased this year by 4% while the total number of closings in the month went fron 53 in March 2009 to 54 in March 2010. The average sales price in March 2009 was $205,054 while last month the average was $210,129 which is a 2% increase even during this Great Recession. The weather is improving although the windy weeks are upon us. I'm looking forward to a good spring and summer market and am hoping that the government extends the homebuyer tax credit which is helping fuel this market.

Spring has arrived in San Juan County. The snow has all melted and the trees are blooming.

The residential sales statistics for February 2010 are in and show that things are slower this year than last probably due to the local and national downturn. Year over year, there were 3% more active listings in 2010 than in February 2009. There were 22% fewer new listings this February than February last year so at least the supply is not growing too quickly but there were 47% fewer houses under contract this year than in February of 2009. There were also 35% fewer houses that closed this year than in February of 2009. The average sales price actually increased 3% so prices appear to have remained stable so far in spite of the slowdown. The slow market may have resulted, at least partially, from the terrible weather we had here the last couple of months. It was real cold and snow came and stayed for a couple of weeks which is unusual in this area. March is starting out warm and sunny and hopefully things will improve this month.

It is the middle of February. The weather has warmed and most of the snow has melted. The local election is scheduled for about two weeks from now. No real news on the economic front although Olive Garden should open in town by summer. There have been rumors that this Italian Restaurant was coming to town for year although until now none have panned out. Based on local news accounts, the restaurant should employ 165 people. St. Clairs, a new restaurant opened a few weeks ago and is busy all the time. This is a good indication long term for the local ecomony.

At the beginning of February the weather has broken, at least for a while. January was cold and snowy. Reports in the local newspaper indicate that unemployment in the county has risen to over 9% with the closing of Bloomfield Refinery and the continued slow down in the oil and gas fields in the area. MLS statistics indicate that in 2009 there were 600 listings active in January while this year there were 642, about a 7% increase. In 2009 there wre 35 sales closed in January while in 2010 only 24 sales closed indicating a 31% decrease year over year. The average sales price was down about 2% from $209,048 to 204,328 as the list price to sales price ratio declined from 99% to 97%. Clean well located houses under $500,000 are still selling but buyers are skimming the cream of the market off the top.

Farmington Daily Times, "Unemployment at 8.9% in the County". Unemployment in San Juan County rose to 8.9% in November which is reportedly the highest level in the State. The San Juan County economy relies, to a large extent, on extractive industries including coal mining and oil and gas exploration. Natural gas prices fell into the low $2.00/MMCF in late summer due to many factors including fears that new supplies, the new shale plays in the northeast and north, could glut the market and lead to an oversupply in the future. This, coupled with the national recession, led to layoffs in the area and a general slowdown of the San Juan County economy. In spite of this, the area market has been essentially stable although some segments of the market including manufactured homes and properties in the higher price ranges are curretnly over supplied which will likely lead to a softening of prices in the future. Once interest rates rise and the tax incentives expire, the market overall will most likely soften.

2010 has come to San Juan County. I hate to make any predicaitons but based on the current economic climate, interest rates and tax incentives it is my opinion that this year should track 2009 fairly closely at least until June or July. Values in most price ranges should remain stable although sales of manufactured homes and sales of houses in the upper ranges of the market will continue to be soft as we slowly work through the current over supply in these portions of the market. Rumblings are beginning to be hard regarding increases in interest rates. If this happens or if the tax incentives dry up things could change for the worst.

Year over year statistics are out for San Juan County through 12/20/2009. Based on MLS data, the average sales price of properties in the county including manufactured homes, townhomes, site built houses and condos fell from $208,969 to $205,295 which is approximately a 2% decrease from the prior year. The total number of units sold fell from 793 total to 641 which represents a 19% decrease year over year. The list price to sales price ratio average actually increased from 95% last year to 98% in 2009 accoding to the MLS data while the total sales volume of $131,594,194 was 21% lower than the volume of $165,712,500 which was the total of sales in 2008. This data is for Farmington, Bloomfield, Kirtland, La Plata and Aztec New Mexico as well as the rural areas of San Juan County south of the Colorado border.